Lack of association between HLA and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (preprint)

Human genetic studies of critical COVID-19 pneumonia have revealed the essential role of type I interferon-dependent innate immunity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conversely, an association between the HLA-B*15:01 allele and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated individuals was recently reported, suggesting a contribution of pre-existing T cell-dependent adaptive immunity. We report a lack of association of classical HLA alleles, including HLA-B*15:01, with pre-omicron asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated participants in a prospective population-based study in the US (191 asymptomatic vs. 945 symptomatic COVID-19 cases). Moreover, we found no such association in the international COVID Human Genetic Effort cohort (206 asymptomatic vs. 574 mild or moderate COVID-19 cases and 1,625 severe or critical COVID-19 cases). Finally, in the Human Challenge Characterisation study, the three HLA-B*15:01 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 developed symptoms. As with other acute primary infections, no classical HLA alleles favoring an asymptomatic course of SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified. These findings suggest that memory T-cell immunity to seasonal coronaviruses does not strongly influence the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated individuals.

Human Genomics of COVID-19 Pneumonia: Contributions of Rare and Common Variants.

SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection is silent or benign in most infected individuals, but causes hypoxemic COVID-19 pneumonia in about 10% of cases. We review studies of the human genetics of life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia, focusing on both rare and common variants. Large-scale genome-wide association studies have identified more than 20 common loci robustly associated with COVID-19 pneumonia with modest effect sizes, some implicating genes expressed in the lungs or leukocytes. The most robust association, on chromosome 3, concerns a haplotype inherited from Neanderthals. Sequencing studies focusing on rare variants with a strong effect have been particularly successful, identifying inborn errors of type I interferon (IFN) immunity in 1-5% of unvaccinated patients with critical pneumonia, and their autoimmune phenocopy, autoantibodies against type I IFN, in another 15-20% of cases. Our growing understanding of the impact of human genetic variation on immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is enabling health systems to improve protection for individuals and populations. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biomedical Data Science, Volume 6 is August 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland: on the importance of testing, contact tracing and isolation.

Switzerland is among the countries with the highest number of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases per capita in the world. There are likely many people with undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection because testing efforts are currently not detecting all infected people, including some with clinical disease compatible with COVID-19. Testing on its own will not stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Testing is part of a strategy. The World Health Organization recommends a combination of measures: rapid diagnosis and immediate isolation of cases, rigorous tracking and precautionary self-isolation of close contacts. In this article, we explain why the testing strategy in Switzerland should be strengthened urgently, as a core component of a combination approach to control COVID-19.

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland.

Following the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 cases in Switzerland, large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented by the cantons and the federal government between 28 February and 20 March 2020. Estimates of the impact of these interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission are critical for decision making in this and future outbreaks. We here aim to assess the impact of these NPIs on disease transmission by estimating changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) at national and cantonal levels in relation to the timing of these NPIs. We estimated the time-varying R0 nationally and in eleven cantons by fitting a stochastic transmission model explicitly simulating within-hospital dynamics. We used individual-level data from more than 1000 hospitalised patients in Switzerland and public daily reports of hospitalisations and deaths. We estimated the national R0 to be 2.8 (95% confidence interval 2.1–3.8) at the beginning of the epidemic. Starting from around 7 March, we found a strong reduction in time-varying R0 with a 86% median decrease (95% quantile range [QR] 79–90%) to a value of 0.40 (95% QR 0.3–0.58) in the period of 29 March to 5 April. At the cantonal level, R0 decreased over the course of the epidemic between 53% and 92%. Reductions in time-varying R0 were synchronous with changes in mobility patterns as estimated through smartphone activity, which started before the official implementation of NPIs. We inferred that most of the reduction of transmission is attributable to behavioural changes as opposed to natural immunity, the latter accounting for only about 4% of the total reduction in effective transmission. As Switzerland considers relaxing some of the restrictions of social mixing, current estimates of time-varying R0 well below one are promising. However, as of 24 April 2020, at least 96% (95% QR 95.7–96.4%) of the Swiss population remains susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. These results warrant a cautious relaxation of social distance practices and close monitoring of changes in both the basic and effective reproduction numbers.

Host genomics of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

SARS-CoV-2 infected a large fraction of humans in the past 2 years. The clinical presentation of acute infection varies greatly between individuals, ranging from asymptomatic or mild to life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia with multi-organ complications. Demographic and comorbid factors explain part of this variability, yet it became clear early in the pandemic that human genetic variation also plays a role in the stark differences observed amongst SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. Using tools and approaches successfully developed for human genomic studies in the previous decade, large international collaborations embarked in the exploration of the genetic determinants of multiple outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with a special emphasis on disease severity. Genome-wide association studies identified multiple common genetic variants associated with COVID-19 pneumonia, most of which in regions encoding genes with known or suspected immune function. However, the downstream, functional work required to understand the precise causal variants at each locus has only begun. The interrogation of rare genetic variants using targeted, exome, or genome sequencing approaches has shown that defects in genes involved in type I interferon response explain some of the most severe cases. By highlighting genes and pathways involved in SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and host-virus interactions, human genomic studies not only revealed novel preventive and therapeutic targets, but also paved the way for more individualized disease management.

A frequent ancestral NFKB1 variant predicts risk of infection or allergy (preprint)

Infectious agents contribute significantly to the global burden of diseases, through both acute infection and their chronic sequelae. We leveraged the UK Biobank to identify genetic loci that influence humoral immune response to multiple infections. From 45 genome-wide association studies in 9,611 participants from UK Biobank, we identified NFKB1 as a locus associated with quantitative antibody responses to multiple pathogens including those from the herpes, retro- and polyoma-virus families. An insertion-deletion variant thought to affect NFKB1 expression (rs28362491), was mapped as the likely causal variant. This variant has persisted throughout hominid evolution and could play a key role in regulation of the immune response. Using 121 infection and inflammation related traits in 487,297 UK Biobank participants, we show that the deletion allele was associated with an increased risk of infection from diverse pathogens but had a protective effect against allergic disease. We propose that altered expression of NFKB1 , as a result of the deletion, modulates haematopoietic pathways, and likely impacts cell survival, antibody production, and inflammation. Taken together, we show that disruptions to the tightly regulated immune processes may tip the balance between exacerbated immune responses and allergy, or increased risk of infection and impaired resolution of inflammation.

Rare predicted loss-of-function variants of type I IFN immunity genes are associated with critical COVID-19 (preprint)

Background We previously reported inborn errors of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I interferon (IFN) immunity in 1-5% of unvaccinated patients with life-threatening COVID-19, and autoantibodies against type I IFN in another 15-20% of cases. Methods We report here a genome-wide rare variant burden association analysis in 3,269 unvaccinated patients with life-threatening COVID-19 (1,301 previously reported and 1,968 new patients), and 1,373 unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals without pneumonia. A quarter of the patients tested had antibodies against type I IFN (234 of 928) and were excluded from the analysis. Results No gene reached genome-wide significance. Under a recessive model, the most significant gene with at-risk variants was TLR7, with an OR of 27.68 (95%CI:1.5-528.7, P=1.1x10-4), in analyses restricted to biochemically loss-of-function (bLOF) variants. We replicated the enrichment in rare predicted LOF (pLOF) variants at 13 influenza susceptibility loci involved in TLR3-dependent type I IFN immunity (OR=3.70 [95%CI:1.3-8.2], P=2.1x10-4). Adding the recently reported TYK2 COVID-19 locus strengthened this enrichment, particularly under a recessive model (OR=19.65 [95%CI:2.1-2635.4]; P=3.4x10-3). When these 14 loci and TLR7 were considered, all individuals hemizygous (n=20) or homozygous (n=5) for pLOF or bLOF variants were patients (OR=39.19 [95%CI:5.2-5037.0], P=4.7x10-7), who also showed an enrichment in heterozygous variants (OR=2.36 [95%CI:1.0-5.9], P=0.02). Finally, the patients 13 with pLOF or bLOF variants at these 15 loci were significantly younger (mean age [SD]=43.3 [20.3] years) than the other patients (56.0 [17.3] years; P=1.68x10-5). Conclusions Rare variants of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I IFN immunity genes can underlie lifethreatening COVID-19, particularly with recessive inheritance, in patients under 60 years old.

The butterfly effect: mutational bias of SARS-CoV-2 affects its pattern of molecular evolution on synonymous and nonsynonymous levels (preprint)

Evolution is a function of mutagenesis and selection. To analyse the role of mutagenesis on the structure of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, we reconstructed the mutational spectrum, which was highly C>U and G>U biased. This bias suggests that, in weakly constrained regions, the SARS-CoV-2 genome becomes increasingly U-rich. We analysed the consequences of this bias on the composition of the most neutral (four-fold degenerate synonymous substitutions) and the least neutral positions (nonsynonymous substitutions). The neutral nucleotide sites of the genome are already saturated by U, suggesting that in the past, an ancestral virus was exposed to similar mutational pressure, and in the future, we don't expect any significant changes since the system is at equilibrium. However, nonsynonymous changes continue slowly evolve towards equilibrium substituting CG-rich amino-acids ("losers") with U-rich ones ("gainers"). Comparing Coronaviridae with all other positive-stranded RNA viruses, we observed an excess of gainers and a deficit of losers in the former, suggesting that the coronavirus-specific mutational bias affected the amino-acid content of the entire family on the long-term evolutionary scale. We propose the butterfly effect - a tuning of a protein space through permissive amino-acid trajectories by mutational bias, which can be common in species with biased mutagenesis.

The risk of COVID-19 death is much greater and age-dependent with type I IFN autoantibodies (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate (IFR) doubles with every five years of age from childhood onward. Circulating autoantibodies neutralizing IFN-α, IFN-ω, and/or IFN-β are found in ~20% of deceased patients across age groups. In the general population, they are found in ~1% of individuals aged 20-70 years and in >4% of those >70 years old. With a sample of 1,261 deceased patients and 34,159 uninfected individuals, we estimated both IFR and relative risk of death (RRD) across age groups for individuals carrying autoantibodies neutralizing type I IFNs, relative to non-carriers. For autoantibodies neutralizing IFN-α2 or IFN-ω, the RRD was 17.0[95% CI:11.7-24.7] for individuals under 70 years old and 5.8[4.5-7.4] for individuals aged 70 and over, whereas, for autoantibodies neutralizing both molecules, the RRD was 188.3[44.8-774.4] and 7.2[5.0-10.3], respectively. IFRs increased with age, from 0.17%[0.12-0.31] for individuals <40 years old to 26.7%[20.3-35.2] for those ≥80 years old for autoantibodies neutralizing IFN-α2 or IFN-ω, and from 0.84%[0.31-8.28] to 40.5%[27.82-61.20] for the same two age groups, for autoantibodies neutralizing both molecules. Autoantibodies against type I IFNs increase IFRs, and are associated with high RRDs, particularly those neutralizing both IFN-α2 and -ω. Remarkably, IFR increases with age, whereas RRD decreases with age. Autoimmunity to type I IFNs appears to be second only to age among common predictors of COVID-19 death.

Revolutionizing Medical Data Sharing Using Advanced Privacy-Enhancing Technologies: Technical, Legal, and Ethical Synthesis.

Multisite medical data sharing is critical in modern clinical practice and medical research. The challenge is to conduct data sharing that preserves individual privacy and data utility. The shortcomings of traditional privacy-enhancing technologies mean that institutions rely upon bespoke data sharing contracts. The lengthy process and administration induced by these contracts increases the inefficiency of data sharing and may disincentivize important clinical treatment and medical research. This paper provides a synthesis between 2 novel advanced privacy-enhancing technologies-homomorphic encryption and secure multiparty computation (defined together as multiparty homomorphic encryption). These privacy-enhancing technologies provide a mathematical guarantee of privacy, with multiparty homomorphic encryption providing a performance advantage over separately using homomorphic encryption or secure multiparty computation. We argue multiparty homomorphic encryption fulfills legal requirements for medical data sharing under the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation which has set a global benchmark for data protection. Specifically, the data processed and shared using multiparty homomorphic encryption can be considered anonymized data. We explain how multiparty homomorphic encryption can reduce the reliance upon customized contractual measures between institutions. The proposed approach can accelerate the pace of medical research while offering additional incentives for health care and research institutes to employ common data interoperability standards.

Immunological lessons from genome-wide association studies of infections.

Over the past few years, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been increasingly applied to identify host genetic factors influencing clinical and laboratory traits related to immunity and infection, and to understand the interplay between the host and the microbial genomes. By screening large cohorts of individuals suffering from various infectious diseases, GWAS explored resistance against infection, natural history of the disease, development of life-threatening clinical signs, and innate and adaptive immune responses. These efforts provided fundamental insight on the role of major genes in the interindividual variability in the response to infection and on the mechanisms of the immune response against human pathogens both at the individual and population levels.

Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Switzerland (preprint)

Following the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 cases in Switzerland, large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented by the cantons and the federal government between February 28 and March 20. Estimates of the impact of these interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission are critical for decision making in this and future outbreaks. We here aim to assess the impact of these NPIs on disease transmission by estimating changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) at national and cantonal levels in relation to the timing of these NPIs. We estimate the time-varying R0 nationally and in twelve cantons by fitting a stochastic transmission model explicitly simulating within hospital dynamics. We use individual-level data of >1,000 hospitalized patients in Switzerland and public daily reports of hospitalizations and deaths. We estimate the national R0 was 3.15 (95% CI: 2.13-3.76) at the start of the epidemic. Starting from around March 6, we find a strong reduction in R0 with a 85% median decrease (95% quantile range, QR: 83%-90%) to a value of 0.44 (95% QR: 0.27-0.65) in the period of March 29-April 5. At the cantonal-level R0 decreased over the course of the epidemic between 71% and 94%. We found that reductions in R0 were synchronous with changes in mobility patterns as estimated through smartphone activity, which started before the official implementation of NPIs. We found that most of the reduction of transmission is due to behavioural changes as opposed to natural immunity, the latter accounting for only about 3% of the total reduction in effective transmission. As Switzerland considers relaxing some of the restrictions of social mixing, current estimates of R0 well below one are promising. However most of inferred transmission reduction was due to behaviour change (<3% due to natural immunity buildup), with an estimated 97% (95% QR: 96.6%-97.2%) of the Swiss population still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 as of April 24. These results warrant a cautious relaxation of social distance practices and close monitoring of changes in both the basic and effective reproduction numbers.